There have been many discussions recently over which way the US Dollar will swing in 2016 and there are a number of factors that point towards Dollar weakening in the foreseeable.

Originally we were concerned about GBP weakness, with the EU referendum showing mixed poll results creating uncertainty over the UK’s future within the EU, and poor economic data damping the outlook.

Poor US figures and the US Election

The US appear to be having their own set of problems, not only did non-farm payroll figures come in much worse than anticipated, but jobless claims and unemployment figures seem to highlight a negative outlook.

The US election is turning out to be one of the most controversial yet. Clinton appears to be playing the typical political game which we are all familiar with. Trump on the other hand, has toned down his aggressive stance in an attempt to win over a larger portion of the conservatives amongst the Americans.

Originally we predicted USD weakness on the back of Trump winning the Presidential election but if his stance continues to remain controlled and economically sound we may see the opposite to be true.

EU referendum and US Interest rate hikes

In the event the UK decide to stay in the EU and the FED continue to back away from a hike we could see rates hit 1.60 prior to the US elections. If you need to buy the US Dollar I would definitely hold off in the meantime as we approach closer to the US election.
I predict GBPUSD exchange rates to hit the 1.60 mark prior to the big event as long as the UK decide to remain part of the EU.