As far back as I can remember, the Eurozone has faced many difficult obstacles which in some form, have been swept under the EU carpet. How many member states over the last decade have required financial intervention? Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ireland and Italy are just a few to name.
This paints only half the picture, most of these struggling economies at the time had to bare the drawn out implications of the Global Recession in 2007/8, and some like Greece, still bare the aftermath of the collapse of the Lehman Brothers.
Time and time again we have witnessed bailouts in some shape or form, Quantitative Easing, flat lined interest rates all in the hopes of higher inflation.
And just when inflation finally makes its way closer to the ECB’s target, markets have found something else to bite their nails over.
Political events to drive Euro exchange rates
There was much discussion last year over the far-right National Front, the French political party headed up by Marine Le Pen. Back when the Brexit and Donald Trump were considered fantasies, improbable events that were significant in nature but few took seriously.
It comes as no surprise then, nearly a year on, markets remain apprehensive towards the French elections this year. The polls were highly inaccurate in predicting the rise of Trump and Brexit, and when you consider that Le Pen is only 3 points behind the favourite Macron, the margin of error is of far greater importance.
If you read into much of the hype, her chances of becoming the next French President are slim. There is also a growing belief that EU states have grown closer since the UK’s decision last June and that further EU integration will likely follow.
But oddly, the Euro continues to head further into negative territory and the latest polls suggest Le Pen is building momentum with weeks to go before the campaign trail begins.
Even if Le Pen made it three out of three, she would still need a majority in favour of leaving the EU and markets should not jump the gun in these early stages. Yes Le Pen does want to take France out of the Euro, but it will take more than her appointment to secure any such arrangements.
The Euro is preparing itself for the biggest hurdle yet in 2017, but one should ought to remember that even in the face of political and economic turmoil, the bloc has always fought its way through.