In a twist of events, the UK will not leave the EU without Parliamentary consent as ruled by the High Court on Thursday. With this in mind, Sterling could find further support next week as the case for a “soft” Brexit strengthens.
That being said, Theresa May has already begun preparing an appeal to the case which is set for December, at around the time the FED are expected to raise interest rates. This does allow some breathing space for the Pound unless something sporadic was to arise before then.
Next week is a relatively quiet week for the Pound, but politics elsewhere will take the center stage and perhaps some of the spotlight will move away from Brexit in the short term. The only noticeable releases come in the form of GDP and Inflation. The inflation report hearing on Tuesday will unlikely differ from the recent findings, that being the fall in the Pound’s value bringing higher consumer prices. The biggest event of the year however will likely overshadow any releases that day, with either Trump or Clinton assuming the White House.
If it’s Trump, Sterling to US Dollar exchange rates could edge higher, whilst a Clinton victory could result in GBP/USD weakness.
The other important angle to consider is whether the FED will hike rates in December if Trump takes Presidency. Given his distaste for Chairlady Janet Yellen and the concerns of his victory on markets, hopes of a hike in December could be pushed back causing a sell-off of the US Dollar.
With such little economic data for the UK, most of the movements next week will fall on the US elections.