The final hurdle for Brexit begins on Monday, when the House Of Lords will scrutinise the Brexit bill and potentially provide amendments that could derail Theresa May’s timeline. There are arguments on both sides for and against further amendments, for one, the concern for civil unrest in the event of further delays in exiting the EU.
Furthermore, any delays to the process could flare up market uncertainty causing further falls in Sterling’s value.
Monday could be a volatile day for the Pound, and markets will be focused on the outcome of the Brexit bill.
Tony Blair and the case for Remain
The former Prime Minister has once again hit the headlines following his remarks surrounding the Brexit vote, suggesting that the UK could change its mind over the vote last June. His comments have been met with huge criticism noticeably around his involvement in the Iraq war, which many at the time were against but had little say on the outcome. In contrast, the EU Referendum was a public vote. It remains to be scene what impact Blair may have on the public’s decision, but some Brexit supporters including the former UKIP leader Nigel Farage, have suggested his political ploy may strengthen the case for an EU exit.
GDP figures on Wednesday
A quiet week for Sterling but plenty of opportunities for movements in either direction. Markets remain nervous following Friday’s retail sale figures, which posted its third decline in three months.
A weaker Pound is driving consumer prices up, coupled with Brexit uncertainty and there are strong arguments to support a noticeable slowdown in the UK economy.
That being said, we haven’t witnessed the economic forecasts before the Referendum vote, and it remains to be seen whether economic doom and gloom will present itself in the weeks and months ahead.
But given Friday’s poor retail sales which marks 3 consecutive releases in negative territory, UK GDP figures could bear the brunt on Wednesday.
I am predicting a small drop in Sterling exchange rates, with GBP/EUR moving closer to 1.16 and GBP/USD near 1.22/1.23.