Following the Brexit vote last June, and the surprise victory of Donald Trump in November, markets must be wondering what’s in store for today’s special: The Dutch elections. The old superstition that bad luck comes in threes could be about to ring true when Geert Wilders – the far right political figure of the Party for Freedom – has an opportunity to capitalise on the fears of the Dutch with his anti-establishment, anti-immigration rhetoric.
Up to now, it does seem to win voters amongst the millions of those heading for the polls today, although markets can find comfort in the overwhelming support of the Dutch for the European Union project.
If Geert Wilders assumes power, there is a strong possibility that the Netherlands will hold a Referendum on EU membership, but the question is: will the Dutch buy into it?
In any event, the Euro is likely to suffer a blow from today’s political event, markets are already nervous that the anti-European sentiment is growing in large numbers.
What does the Dutch elections mean for the French elections?
The key question here onward is whether the Dutch elections will set the scene for the upcoming French elections in April. If the anti-EU sentiment finds its way through the Netherlands, markets will have to second guess the outcome of the French elections in the wake of Trump, Brexit and now the Party for Freedom.
Marine Le Pen of the French National Front has taken the opportunity to congratulate the UK and Trump for taking the bold steps to ‘taking back control’, and its likely another far-right Dutch victory will be utilised to her advantage.
These are the sorts of questions and theoretical outcomes that Euro investors will be considering today, and I would envisage big movements for Euro exchange rates if Geert Wilders emerged the winner of the Dutch elections today.