The Australian Central Bank this morning revealed their latest interest rate decision, leaving the rate on hold at 1.5%. There wasn’t expected to be a change in the rate and upon the announcement there was very little reaction for the GBP/AUD exchange rate, however against the US Dollar the Aussie lost nearly 1 percent.
Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Philip Lowe spoke after the release and suggested that the appreciation of the Australian Dollar of late has been down to other currencies under-performing. Inflation in Australia has been rising over the last few months due to the strength of the currency, which is a concern for the RBA. Considering that there are economic pressures created by a strong currency, when you don’t have control it can make forward planning even trickier.
When might the RBA change Australian interest rates?
What might start to happen in Australia is the RBA may start to deliberately weaken the currency. During the last few weeks several members of their Monetary Policy Committee have suggested there isn’t going to be an interest rate hike until the middle of 2018. The markets are thought to have now priced in a rate hike in July 2018, but this far out there is always scope for change.
Trade Balance data due on Thursday
As we approach the end of the week, we will see further news from Australia with Import and Export Trade Balance data. This provides a look into the trade books of how much the country imports compares to the amount they export.
Australia is a trade positive country and export significantly more than they import, this is mainly due to China being their largest partner. There isn’t expected to be any surprises in the data on Thursday, however should there be any deviation from the straight and narrow then the Australian Dollar could be affected.
You can keep track of live GBP/AUD interbank rates here.