As markets prepare for one of the most unique US Presidential elections in history, the polls seem to suggest support edging towards Clinton. The Canadian economy would benefit from a US interest rate hike of course, and the idea of a Trump victory could prevent one from happening.
The FED are not supposed to interfere with political events but its already apparent that the markets fear a Trump victory, and what of Trump’s relationship with Chairlady Janet Yellen? His distaste for her “wait and see” approach to interest rate hikes could make for a difficult 4 years together.
But its not just the US and Canadian economy that fear a trump victory, his paranoia towards the Chinese has led him to consider severing ties with if an unwillingness to cooperate persists.
Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rates have dropped since the early hours of the trading day, helped by the FED’s last minute decision to drop any case against Clinton’s email fiasco, perhaps a little late in the day at such a vital part of the race.
Will Trump or Clinton win the race tomorrow?
Both candidates are unpopular with some groups, and perhaps a more passionate fan base amongst Trump supporters. In similar respects to the UK’s Referendum in June, I share the view that markets have underestimated a Trump victory significantly.
That being said, a Trump victory on Wednesday could spell further good news for GBP/CAD exchange rates, whilst a Clinton victory may help bolster the Canadian Dollar.
Although weaker oil prices are haunting the Canadian economy, Brexit remains the key driver behind most currencies paired with Sterling. Those looking to buy Canadian Dollars are currently presented with 4-weekly highs and buying ahead of the US election results could be wise.