- Pound finds support 3 days prior to Referendum
- Polls now suggest neck on neck vote
- Leave campaign crippled by controversial poster
- GBPEUR back up to 1.29
- GBPUSD soars to 1.46
The first opinion poll since the death of MP Jo Cox has put Remain in the lead with only 3 days to go before the referendum. Whether her death has resulted in a soar in remain votes is uncertain, however, bookmakers have shortened their odds of a remain which has led to sharp gains for Sterling.
The polls now reflect a 44-44% split with 12% unsure, it will be interesting to see how the unsure voters will vote on the day. Pollsters have maintained that these voters will make up two-thirds of the status quo which could be the tipping point for the Remain camp.
On the other hand, one could argue that the Leave camp are more likely to vote on the day as they feel more passionately towards the outcome, at this stage the results are still incredibly difficult to predict with so much to play for.
Nigel Farage slammed for controversial poster
Nigel Farage released a poster over last week with a large number of non-white immigrants pictured queuing with the caption “Breaking Point: The EU has failed us all”. The poster was criticised by both sides and labelled racist by media outlets. Farage removed the poster but maintains it was removed in respect to Jo Cox’s death, not due to controversy. The poster was widely criticised in the media and would have had some negative impact on the Brexit camp, who are often linked to anti-immigration policy.
Pound Sterling forecast – The week ahead
We originally forecasted for the Pound to weaken this week off the back of a Brexit lead but it looks as though fears have subsided, if the polls and bookmakers continue to hint at a remain vote Pound Sterling may maintain current levels of 1.26-1.28 against the Euro and 1.41-1.45 against the US Dollar. The last 24 hours has proven just how much of an impact polls have on rates with GBPEUR moving up 2 cents and GBPUSD moving 3.
That’s not to say there won’t be fluctuations as we approach the 23rd but it looks as though investor confidence is proving difficult to shake. However, we remain firm with our predictions in the event the UK were to leave the EU, significant falls in the value of Sterling will likely occur and given how tight the polls are, those looking to transfer currency may wish to do so prior to the results to avoid potential losses.