Tomorrow we are expected to hear the outcome of the Supreme Court ruling, which determines whether Theresa May will have the right to invoke Article 50 without Parliamentary consent. Its widely expected that the outcome will not work benefit the UK Government, and the outcome may be a non-event for those hoping for Pound Sterling strength.
But on the contrary, do not expect the outcome to prevent or delay Brexit, as the outcome tomorrow has very little impact on the bigger Brexit picture.
May and her Government are still expected to invoke Article 50 in March, and there are few members of Parliament that will act to prevent this from happening. So the question as to whether Parliament can vote on Article 50 is a mute one.
Most Labour MP’s that hold seats in the House of Commons are in support of Brexit, and will have little reason to prevent May from beginning the process of leaving the EU. There are some however, such as the Lib Dem Leader Tim Farron, who is positioning the Lib Dem’s as the main anti-Brexit party.
But this is unlikely to prevent the Government’s deadline for Article 50, with a large majority in favour the outcome of tomorrow’s case is likely to have little impact on the overall Brexit timescales.
The real question is whether Parliament will have a say on negotiations with the EU, which is equally unlikely given Theresa May’s Brexit speech last week, as it could slow down the UK’s exit which already faces tight deadlines under Article 50.
In any event, it looks to be a lose-lose which may only hamper GBP/EUR in the mid-term, as this allows the Government to pursue a hard Brexit anyway.