Ministers in the Government have apparently considered making contingency plans as they succumb to the news that they will lose the Supreme Court ruling. The High Court judgement will allow Parliament to vote on the Brexit deal and is likely to prolong the triggering of Article 50.
The markets in my opinion, will perceive the opportunity for Parliament to vote as positive to prevent any knee jerk negotiations.
The Government along with Theresa May had been gearing towards a “Hard Brexit” which was going to favour immigration over being part of the single market. The House of Commons, which has more members in the Remain camp than Leave could well push for the negotiations to have a more business focus.
When is the Supreme Court decision expected
The Supreme Court were back today from the Christmas break and it isn’t expected to be long before a verdict is available. The Government have supposedly asked for an early sight of the judgement to start preparing contingency plans. It seems likely that there will be a decision within the next 2 weeks and I would be surprised if we didn’t hear something before the end of next week.
Sterling has recovered today from yesterday’s 2-month lows with the volatility set to continue. The Supreme Court decision looks like it will bring a sharp boost to Sterling or an immediate fall. If the High Court ruling is upheld then Sterling may rise, however if it’s overruled Article 50 is very likely to be triggered within 12 weeks and negotiations will begin, which would almost certainly cause Sterling to crash.