GBPCAD begun the week fairly consistent at 1.83 and despite a number of poor UK data releases, has seen further gains as we headed further into the week, this week alone has seen rates perk up 4 cents. Oil prices have begun to dip in the last week despite peaking at $46 a barrel before declining to $43.60
Will GBPCAD continue their uptrend?
Wednesday saw terrible wildfires hit the Canadian city of Fort McMurray which stalled oil production, weakening the currency. The fires appear to be worsening as of today which will drastically impact future GDP releases for the economy, given that 700,000 barrels of oil are produced daily from this plant.
I think the general trend will be downhill as we approach the EU referendum, the recent polls shown 50:50 split between ‘stay’ and ‘leave’ and political uncertainty coupled with poor UK economic data will weaken sterling in days to come.
Key economic releases today
A number of key economic releases today could see exchange rates move drastically, unemployment figures are expected to grow .1% on last trend. The Ivey PMI release looks at overall business and economic conditions and expectations show a positive trend. However, the big event comes from Non-farm payroll figures released by the US which carries a huge print for global economic strength.
Figures released just now indicate a sharp drop in non-farm payroll figures, 40k below predicted figures. This could impact the FED’s decision to hike rates and could negatively impact CAD in days to come.