- Consumer price figures tomorrow could provide fresh hopes for Sterling
- Brexit unlikely to happen until 2019
Tomorrow’s release of consumer price figures for the UK could surprise markets, given the positive trend in retail sales. Whilst Brexit has been a major concern for businesses, it’s becoming clearer that the UK will not divorce from the EU for some time.
And this message will begin to impact economic releases going forward, there is still plenty of time for business to continue as normal before Brexit needs to be considered. I am therefore expecting Sterling to rebound from some of its recent losses by the end of the year.
Recent economic data not evident of a recession
Whilst the recent releases have trended negative, the initial shock of Brexit and concerns surrounding the ramifications have been widespread yet nothing is likely to change for at least 2 years. As this message becomes clearer I am expecting the dust to settle and the economy to recover before Article 50 is subject to invocation.
With this in mind, pay more attention to future releases for the month of August through to October, this will give us a much clearer picture as to what impact the vote has had on the economy. July’s figures are therefore likely to be bias towards the initial shock, and I would therefore remain skeptical regarding further downfalls in Sterling’s value.
Is now a good time to sell Australian Dollars for Sterling
The Aussie Dollar is nearing a 3 high against Sterling, and I am expecting GBPAUD exchange rates to move closer to the 1.75 in the weeks ahead. Economic releases for the UK will continue to show a mixed outlook but trend more positively as Article 50 continues to be put on hold until next year. This period of stability could last for some time for the UK, until an official withdrawing elapses.
Therefore if you are holding on to Aussie Dollars, making a transfer during this window of opportunity could be something to consider.