How US Employment Figures Could Impact US Dollar Exchange Rates
During this afternoons trading there are a number of key economic data releases due to be announced. One of the most notable of these is initial jobless claims which is a data set showing the number of people who are filing claims for unemployment for the first time, as a result this can paint a very clear picture of the US labour market. The expectation is that the figure will increase marginally from last month by three thousand people and if the figures do come out as expected I expect that it would lead to limited movement. However, should the figure come out better than expected and follow in line with a number of the recent, strong economic data from the States could mean we see the US Dollar strengthen against most of the major currencies including potentially breaking through the 1.40 barrier against Sterling and falling into the high 1.30’s.
Along side the initial jobless claims the continuing jobless claims will be released which is predicted to show an improvement on last month with just over 2.23 million people out of employment. The number of people in employment is key for any economy and so should this figure continue to show an improvement as expected or even better than expected it could give more weight to the argument that Sterling Dollar exchange rates will drop below the 1.40 mark.
US Durable Goods Order Set to be Announced In a Busy Day for the US Dollar
At the same time as the employment figures are released this afternoon, we have the latest Durable Goods orders for the US. This data release shows the number of orders for durable goods (goods that typically do not need to be purchased frequently because they are designed to last a long time such as cars, washing machines and mobile phones). These type of products are often relatively expensive and therefore should the number of orders be high can demonstrate a strong economy and almost more importantly shows confidence in the economy.
In stark contrast to the employment figures which are expected to show an improvement the Durable Goods Orders are predicted to show a very sharp decline falling from last months figure of 4.7% to minus 2.9%. Part of this decline is likely to be attributed to a drop in orders for cars which is likely to show a drop of 1.9% from last month. If the predicted figures are accurate it could lead to US Dollar weakness however, some of this may already be priced into the exchange rates and so if the actual figures show any form of improvement compared to the expectation there is a chance we could see the Dollar strengthen.
Finally today we have James Bullard, member of the Federal Reserve Bank of America (FED) speaking and is likely to give his views on the US economy and possibly most interestingly his thoughts in interest rate movement in the US. This could again provide some volatility for the USD.
From all at currency.co.uk we wish you a very happy Easter.