Latest retail and wholesale survey shows a restoring of confidence

The UK’s vote to leave the EU put major strain on business decisions and saw confidence fall to levels not seen since the Global recession. The latest release this morning however has seen a complete rebound from previous figures released after Brexit.

What’s clear is that business confidence is returning to levels before Brexit, there are a number of factors that could be causing this rebound.

Firstly, the Brexit doom and gloom news would have had an impact on confidence, it’s no secret that a majority of the media outlets were pro-remain. The Government also made stark warnings about leaving the EU, financial institutes and political leaders added further fuel to the fire.

The outlook from the start was always gloomy, but the reality has been far from gloomy. Both the UK and EU releases have been positive shrugging off the recent vote. Retail sales in the UK were also at highs due to strong British weather. Strong consumer price and PPI outputs also aided in a positive economic outlook.

The cheaper Pound has also helped UK exports and improved foreign investment, the general consensus at this stage is that the UK’s vote to leave the EU is having a much lessened impact on the economy than predicted. The other factor of course being that the UK still remains a member of the EU until Article 50 is invoked.

GBPEUR to hit 1.18 next week?

Pound to Euro rates remain above 1.17, I am expecting further spikes in rates off the back of tomorrow’s GDP estimates for Q3.

Next week, the release of further confidence surveys could support Sterling. We may see GBPEUR exchange rates tip about 1.18 by the end of next week.

If you’re buying Euro’s in the short term, next week could present further opportunities, but be cautious of announcements surrounding Article 50.