The Canadian economy looks like there may be trouble on the way as Trump prepares to cut corporation tax and undertake substantial regulatory reform. Donald Trump is set to match the current tax rate in Canada making it an incredibly attractive business environment.
The US forecast looks promising for business and there could be a large movement of workforce as the best people leave Canada to ride the earnings increase that is likely to follow. Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau did meet with Trump this week and doesn’t seem to have done much to defend Canada’s position. Canada’s economic future may rely on Trudeau to come up with some alternative policies as the current measures look unlikely to match Trumps.
Busy week of data coming up
Next week there will be Retail sales data released for Canada which should provide an insight into the current consumer confidence. Two days later on Friday there will also be Consumer Price Index data which is a key indicator to the inflation levels. I do not expect the data release to have too much of an effect on CAD’s movements with so much focus on the current political landscape. Over the next few weeks it will be interesting to see how the Lonnie is received by the markets.
The price of a barrel of oil has started to settle over the last few months since the new OPEC deal was announced in 2016. So far there have been no breaks on the agreement and global production has slowed down. The Loonie is closely linked with the price of oil and should there be any sudden changes in the situation it would be sure to have an adverse effect.