The former Ambassador to the EU Sir Ivan Rogers claims the UK’s departure from the EU could take a decade at best. Rogers served as ambassador to the EU for just over 3 years before resigning in early January, which shocked many across Europe who saw Rogers as a close ally to the European project.
Rogers warned against the implications of Brexit prior to his resignation, and has warned further that the UK faces “gory, bitter and twisted” negotiations.
He resigned in part due to the Government’s clear lack of plan around the Brexit and labelled the government as having “ill founded arguments” and “muddled thinking”.
But his latest comments suggest that the UK could be left in Brexit limbo until the mid 2020’s, which leaves the UK economy particularly vulnerable for the best part of a decade.
Has Rogers over exaggerated the claims?
There have been many reports, stats and economic predictions that have since been defied by the Brexit vote, as such many would assume that further doom mongering would be up for debate.
There is one strikingly huge difference between economic predictions and Rogers’ comments, as witnessed with CETA (Canadian-EU free trade agreement) which almost saw Canada walk away from any deal, took almost 8 years to ratify amongst the other 27 member states.
The UK will have to untangle over 4 decades of economic, political and sociological frameworks, and given the thousands and thousands of legislation that may require amendments post-Brexit, its easily plausible that the UK could enter negotiations well beyond its 2 year Brexit deadline.
The Pound remains in strong territory this side of Article 50, but if Rogers’ predictions come to fruition, Sterling exchange rates could remain on the low side for a significant period of time.