Tomorrow could signal another interest rate hike next week which is likely to see GBP/USD fall below 1.20. The expectation is that should there be good data for the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls then the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing a rate hike at next Wednesday’s meeting is close to certainty.
Non-Farms data shows the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural industry and is a key indication of the economic climate.
The estimated figure is expected to show an increase of 190,000 new jobs in February. Non-Farms can be very volatile and often the predictions can differ greatly from reality. If the figure comes in substantially lower than expected then that could provide market jitters and stall further rate hikes, alternatively a good reading is likely to install belief in the rate hike.
If there is to be a second-rate hike in 3 months, then the markets are likely to expect the next in a short space of time. Donald Trump appears to be having an enormous effect on the strength of the US Dollar with so much business optimism based on the new policies. Trump wants to weaken the US Dollar to increase the attractiveness of US exports however the pro-business President appears to be only stoking further strength.
The unemployment rate will also be released tomorrow and is expected to show a 0.1% drop to 5.7%. This could further improve the US Dollar’s position and considering President Trump plans to make 25 million new jobs it seems as though unemployment rates could drop further.