As the prospect of a Trump victory rattles markets, the results of the US elections are so close to call that those looking to buy or sell US Dollars may be better off trading sooner rather than later, or discussing a contract option with an appropriate currency broker.
One only needs to look at the ongoing Brexit scenario as a result of the UK’s referendum in June. Whilst the polls looked comfortably in remains favour, the result was far from market expectations as witnessed only hours before the outcome was announced. If you trust polls, Clinton leads by as much as 5 points in some with Trump leading in others.
But what do polls represent? It represents a general opinion of how voters will sway in these final hours before the results, and with so much variation from poll to poll there is further reason not to gamble on the results this week.
Clinton or Trump?
You would assume that Clinton would steal the show on Wednesday, given Trump’s track record of insults and controversial behavior towards women. Not to mention he has little to no experience in a similar role albeit he has some business experience. But this election is more than just about the lesser of two evils.
With both candidates an unpopular choice amongst some Americans, the choice of not voting at all could prove appealing in these crucial days leaving passionate Trump voters with an opportunity to win. But what about ethnic minority groups? Of course there are many that have a distaste for Trump’s legacy but do these groups represent states required to secure a win for Clinton?
And what of the angry voters, those that want to rebel against globalization and corrupt career politicians? There are those that would vote Trump over Clinton purely for the fact she has a lower trust rating.
But there is something about Trump that sparks hope in many given his slogan of ‘make American great again’. His apparent passion for exposing the ‘corrupt’ media and returning to the good old days almost feels like deja given the similar stance adopted by the Leave campaign during the UK’s referendum this year.
I would expect to see US Dollar strength in the event Clinton secures a win, and significant weakness in the event of a Trump victory. Whilst I would never advise gambling on the outcome, there could be opportunities for both buyers and sellers in these final hours before results as markets grow increasingly nervous.